Windows 10 is a big bet for Microsoft. After disappointing Windows 8.x release and due to the shift towards cloud-client computing it’s operating system dominance is facing more threats than ever before. While the 10 has potential to be the best Windows ever, there is a lot of doubt whether it can hold its ground in a nearly monopolistic fashion.
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It is not a game changer by any means. Microsoft has been trying to create a lot of hype for the 10, but it real life it is more of a Windows 8.x face lift than a quantum leap in operating system development. It is still Windows in every way, with it’s strengths and weaknesses.
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The user experience for a traditional PC and average user has not really changed. The benefits of Windows 10 vs. 7/8 are very limited on a basic laptop or desktop. For many people this is a positive thing, as there is virtually no learning curve. On the other hand the question remains why anyone should upgrade from 7, which is still being supported for years to come. Windows 8 users are more likely to update in order to get rid of the old Metro UI implementation.
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The world of computing has become far less OS dependent. In many cases it makes no difference whether one uses OSX, Windows or Linux to launch a web based service. This is a big opportunity for competing platforms, if they would be able to deliver something with serious competitive advantages. Obviously it will not be easy and the revenue model would be a serious question mark in the plan. There is more free Windows available today than ever before.
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It is unlikely that Windows 10 can conquer the mobile. Based on the Insider Preview releases Microsoft has yet again put much more effort in under-the-hood changes than the user experience (as with Windows Phone 7.x → 8x upgrade). The tile driven UI concept simply is not selling and chances of closing the app gap look slim. It is fairly certain that new killer mobile apps/services keep ignoring Windows and keep focusing on Android & iOS. This damages the “Windows for everything”-story that Microsoft is trying to sell with 10. It is very likely that Microsoft will axe the failing mobile platform comletely and is forced to push their services on competing operating systems. Not being around in mobile means that most people are getting their 1st touch in computing/Internet on other operating systems (today Android) - people no longer grow up with Windows (MS-DOS) as in the previous decades.
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The Edge is unlikely to cut it. As the web browser has grown into being the actual application platform on the desktop, it is very surprising to see the Edge being one of the soft spots in Windows 10. Once again it brings nothing new to the table for the end users, and actually lacks many of the features already available in competing browsers. There are virtually zero reasons to use. Internet Explorer is still used today due to legacy enterprise application compatibility.
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The Xbox is taking a beating from PlayStation 4. Microsoft has burned billions and billions in the Xbox, as it was their strategy get from peoples’ offices to their living rooms. With the 360 they did pretty well, only losing slightly to Sony’s PS3. In the current generation they are back to taking a beating. It is also worth noting that the gaming industry is in a middle of momentum shift as well - new generations of consoles are failing to outsell their predecessors (PS2 tops the charts with ~158M units). Gaming today is more mobile and less stationary in the living room. Basically only thing missing is a solid connectivity solution from a mobile device to a big screen, and we may on the brink of (traditional) game console extinction. The Xbox has a role in the “Windows for everything”-story and it still is Microsoft’s only gateway out of the office space. My forecast is that Satya Nadella will eventually kill the Xbox too and as a result they are not people’s living rooms or pockets - Microsoft sits tightly at the office desk.
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The Office suite has been the stronghold for Windows. Microsoft however has been very active in pushing it to foreign platforms. Today one can use Office on the web, Android, iOS and the OSX. This is a necessary change of strategy as the Office has even stronger market position than Windows, and Redmond guys will do anything to protect it. A serious threat to the dominance of Office, would be equally serious for Microsoft as a whole. Offering it as a service (Office 365) is a very lucrative business model and competing market entries will be difficult. It is a good product and a de-facto standard. Offering Office on other platforms is however effectively weakening the market position of Windows - why explicitly choose Windows if you can run the excellent Office services on anything?
So, while we may be looking at the end of Windows as the force in the world of operating systems, this does not mean that the future looks dark for Microsoft. Satya Nadella has been very effective in re-shaping the company and its business models. The paradox is that while he is opening new doors for Microsoft, he is also breaking the windows.
Microsoft has said that Windows 10 will be the last Windows ever (pun intended). What do you think?
Is it dusk or dawn shining through that window?